A bounce-back in dry-cargo rates has halved the number of capesize vessels in lay-up with almost all idle capes expected to be back in action soon, leading analysts claim.
Rising iron ore prices and increasing Brazilian exports are driving the resurgence which has already cut the number of sitting capes by up to 53%, according to the latest estimate.
Erik Helberg and Frode Morkedal, analysts at Norwegian finance house Pareto, say around 60 capesize bulkers are presently at anchor. This compares to around 130 over the christmas break.
In a note to investors, they said: ”With Q2 Cape contracts at $30,000 per day, it is likely only a matter of time before almost all laid up tonnage is back in the market.”
Morkedal points to Rio Tinto booking two Polembros Shipping vessels Tuesday at over $30,000 per day as a sign of the present market strength. Both of the vessels were previously in lay-up outside Piraeus.
He adds Pareto expects the arrival of newbuildings to dampen capesize rates in the medium term, with the return of idle tonnage creating further downward pressure.
However, he says the present market momentum should continue for at least the next week.
Morkedal says the bank expects capesize rates to average $15,000 per day during 2009.
Almost 200 capesize vessels were said to be idle following the dry-cargo market slump in the final quarter of 2008. The majority were tied up off Singapore and in the Far East.
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